Biased Brains and Cognitive Tricks
Cognitive biases refer to unconscious mistakes in our thinking, these biases can occur because our brains want to simplify all the information that they take in. I imagine all the information our brain has to process is like a hurricane with pieces of the world whipping you in the face, and these cognitive biases dull the hurricane to a manageable gust of wind.
However, these mental shortcuts can lead to a misinterpretation of events, they can trick us into believing false information and making wrong decisions. Understanding cognitive biases is the first step to no longer falling victim to our brain’s trickery, so here are two biases explained…
Gambler’s Fallacy
Gambler’s Fallacy is the belief that past events will influence future events. For example, thinking that the previous turn of events will cause the future to be different even though there is no interaction. This cognitive trick can cause us to make decisions based on a wrong probability which can lead to poor outcomes.
Imagine that you are flipping a coin and the past 5 times it has landed on heads. If you were guessing what side it would be most likely to land on next, what would you say?
A typical first response might be tails because it’s been heads the past few goes so it must be tails now! But if you consider this properly, it is and always will be a 50/50 chance of both. So, neither is more likely to occur even though the coin has previously landed on heads.
Another example of this is people thinking about the sex of their unborn child. Some might say ‘Ah so and so’s had 3 boys so the next one must be a girl!’ So, if you are hoping to guess right at the baby shower, remember the fact that this woman has had 3 boys previously has nothing to do with the sex of the baby this time.
Gambler’s Fallacy is also called the Monte Carlo Fallacy, as this particular cognitive bias caused gamblers to lose millions by betting on red on the roulette after the ball had continuously landed on black. So, remember to not be swayed by this bias when you bet all your savings in a casino.
Gambler’s Fallacy and Real Life
A study by Chen et al (2016) focuses on the effects of Gambler’s Fallacy on decision-making in asylum judges, loan officers and baseball umpires. Overall, the study suggested that when a person makes the same decision for a long period of time, the following time they might answer differently to be ‘fair’. In the context of loan officers and asylum judges, they might reject a case based on their previous decisions and not the strength of the case itself. I can’t speak for baseball, but these decisions can have quite a negative impact on people’s lives. It’s strange to think that it’s because of a cognitive bias, that a very deserving person will not receive a loan or be granted asylum.
Confirmation Bias
You know that phrase- people only hear what they want to hear?
That’s Confirmation Bias, it’s when you seek out and favour information that aligns with your beliefs and dismiss information that goes against them. Eventually, this just reaffirms your beliefs, and you don’t stop to consider all the information for an unbiased view.
A great example of this is horoscopes. We’ve all flicked through magazines in the waiting room until we come across the horoscopes part so we can have a preview of the week we’re going to have (if you say you haven’t, I know you’re lying)
It probably says something along the lines of… a planet in retrograde, new opportunities that will lead to a change, maybe you’ll make a new friend etc.
After reading this you might seek out information that backs up what you’ve just read. For example, you might see otherwise normal occurrences as an opportunity for change and dismiss information that suggests otherwise.
While this example is rather trivial, confirmation bias is also relevant in more serious issues such as gun control and racism etc. People with the specific viewpoint that more guns are better for America are likely to remember and process events and information that are consistent with their beliefs. Unfortunately, this leads to little change ever being made as people are constantly disagreeing and believing in biased information.
Social media and Confirmation Bias
Furthermore, there has been research into the contribution of social media when it comes to biases. The algorithms on platforms like TikTok can quickly grasp the user’s opinions and interests and will flood their pages with content that is similar. This limits the user’s knowledge as they don’t get to see the whole picture.
A study by Modgil et al. (2021) suggests that social media vastly contributes to differing views on issues like climate change and Covid-19.
They mention the term ‘Echo Chamber’, which is the idea that a person can only face opinions that are the same as theirs which reinforces their existing beliefs. Much like being in a sealed room and hearing your own opinion come back to you again and again.
Never hearing anything that contradicts your beliefs only reinforces the confirmation bias and the interaction between these two phenomena can lead to fake or misleading information. The consequences of this can have extreme effects on society, for example, the whole anti-vax movement, those who don’t believe in climate change and even politics like the US elections.
It’s important to emphasise that anyone can be susceptible to these echo chambers, the media we consume is not always a fair representation of the facts and it can be easy to not question the information we see on our phones or TV.
Hopefully, this article has informed you of the ways our brains trick us. This understanding can make us more aware of these biases and help us not fall for them anymore!
Resources-
- https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/gamblers-fallacy/
- Chen, Daniel L. and Moskowitz, Tobias J. and Moskowitz, Tobias J. and Shue, Kelly, Decision-Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires (January 12, 2016)
- https://helpfulprofessor.com/echo-chamber-examples/
- Modgil, S., Singh, R.K., Gupta, S. et al. A Confirmation Bias View on Social Media Induced Polarisation During Covid-19. Inf Syst Front (2021).
